Rose-Roth seminar in Armenia: closer than ever to peace in the South Caucasus

At the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s (NATO PA) Yerevan Rose-Roth seminar, NATO parliamentarians reaffirmed their support for Armenia’s efforts to strengthen democratic reforms, normalise relations with its neighbours, and pursue closer Euro-Atlantic integration. 

NATO PA President Marcos Perestrello welcomed members to the fourth Rose-Roth seminar held in Armenia. President Perestrello voiced support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, the normalisation process between Armenia and Türkiye, and strengthening ties between Armenia and NATO. 

Referring to the peace process, Perestrello stated, “it is now time to take the necessary last steps, so that the agreement can be signed and implemented swiftly. This would unlock the vast potential between the two countries and for the region – for security, citizens, connectivity, economic development and so much more.”

Ambassador of Switzerland to Armenia Andrea Baumann underlined that “peace cannot be durably secured without strong democratic institutions and processes. And democracies cannot thrive in the absence of security.” With the seminar taking place only weeks after the initialling of a historic peace agreement, attendees heard a panel of experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye, with four members of Türkiye’s Grand National Assembly also in attendance. 

The seminar was held with the generous support of the Swiss government and the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF). The NATO PA’s Sub-Committee on Transition and Development (ESCTD) was associated with the seminar. 

Peace, Security, and Interconnectivity: The keys to unlocking Armenia’s economic potential

Speakers underlined the need for Armenia and Azerbaijan to implement the peace agreement initialled in Washington, D.C. and urged both parties to sign it. 

Not only is peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan beneficial to regional security, it also has the potential to unlock economic growth and prosperity in the region. As NATO parliamentarians learned from panellists, regional integration and infrastructure interconnectivity is crucial to ensuring lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus and vital to enabling the region to reach its geographic potential as a thriving transit hub connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. 

NATO parliamentarians were joined by United States Ambassador to Armenia, Kristina Kvien, who delivered a keynote address. Ambassador Kvien spoke of the historic significance of the peace agreement and the robust diplomacy the US government undertook to achieve it. While more work still needs to be done by both countries to finalise the agreement, doing so will enable Armenia to achieve its potential as a nexus of commerce between east and west and become an anchor of stability in the region. 

As Armenia seeks to strengthen its relations with the US, Ambassador Kvien also spoke about the need to advance private sector connections between both countries and opportunities for cooperation in border security, energy, and joint peacekeeping exercises. Among joint initiatives between Armenia and the US, Ambassador Kvien spoke of planned investment by a US company in an AI data centre in Armenia and planned negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement. The US is also assisting Armenia to develop its cyber defence capabilities.

As NATO parliamentarians learned from Armenia’s Deputy Minister of Economy, Anushik Avetyan, Armenia views peace as a necessary requirement to foster economic development. Developing infrastructure, boosting competitiveness and improving education are high priorities, and Armenia seeks to attract investment in its high tech and green energy sectors.

While Armenia’s trade with Europe lags other key partners, Armenia is seeking to strengthen trade and investment ties to bolster its emerging digital, artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries. Tinatin Akhvlediani, a Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, argued that despite Armenia-EU relations being at their highest point in decades, Armenia can do more to increase trade with the EU. This would involve aligning its standards and regulations with those of the EU, particularly in Armenia’s burgeoning digital and information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors. 

Hybrid Warfare: A Persistent Threat

According to Adam Reichardt, Editor-in-Chief of the New Eastern Europe magazine, Russia remains the most prolific user of hybrid warfare in the region and poses a direct threat to regional security. Russia employs disinformation campaigns to undermine Armenia’s democracy. As Reichardt noted, Russia’s war in Ukraine has not limited its capacity to conduct hybrid attacks in the region. Given that Russia benefits from regional instability, and peace and stability weaken Russia’s position in the South Caucasus, Russia opposes peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Vigilance is needed in the face of Russian attempts to undermine the peace process. 

Russia also views Armenia’s democratisation as a threat to its own interests, as transparent democracies are harder to influence than kleptocratic autocracies. As stated by Styopa Safaryan, Founder and Director of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, hybrid warfare seeks to weaken Armenia’s economic resilience and social stability, manipulate public opinion and distort information environments, erode international confidence and isolate Armenia diplomatically and economically. 

Safaryan also stated that Russia opposes closer Armenian cooperation with NATO and the EU. Given Russia’s proclivity for weaponised dependence, Armenia’s efforts to diversify its economic and security partners are a threat to Russia’s interests. According to Safaryan, hybrid warfare is Russia’s primary method for undermining Armenia’s democracy, reforms, and partner diversification efforts. 

Democratic Resilience

Armenia has made significant progress enacting democratic reforms since its Velvet Revolution in 2018. However, Armenia’s democracy remains vulnerable to external influences. As such, representatives of Armenia’s civil society expressed the need for democratic resilience and fortification to strengthen and safeguard Armenia’s democracy in the face of foreign influence operations. To achieve this, Armenia requires assistance from its democratic partners. As noted by Edgar Khachatryan, President and Founder of the Peace Dialogue Armenia, Ukraine in particular can provide lessons to Armenia on how to combat Russian hybrid warfare. Moldova’s experiences with elections and its efforts to fight external influence and hybrid threats, election financing, and countering disinformation, may also prove useful for Armenia.

Khachatryan further explained that resilience requires strong, accountable, and transparent security sector governance grounded in democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law. Armenia remains committed to stamping out corruption which, as stated by Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, is viewed as a national security threat. 

DCAF’s engagement with Armenia has helped the country to implement reforms in its security sector. As noted by Antje Fritz, Deputy Head of Operations Europe and Central Asia at DCAF, democratic reforms in security and defence are a strategic necessity for a state to be resilient, and democratic resilience is vital to preventing regional and international instability. 

While Armenia is working tirelessly to implement reform, substantial internal and external challenges remain. To solidify its reforms, Fritz stated that it is also necessary to engage and support Armenia’s active and well-informed civil society. 

NATO and the EU: Trusted Partners

In recent years, a core objective of Armenia’s foreign policy has been to diversify its international partners. As stated by the Vice-President of the National Assembly of Armenia, Ruben Rubinyan, Armenia is working towards diversification of relations in economics, politics and security. As such, Armenia is increasing its engagement with the West, seeking closer ties with NATO and the EU. 

In turn, NATO is also seeking to strengthen its relationship with Armenia. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept identifies the Black Sea as being of strategic importance to the entire alliance. By geographic proximity, this includes the South Caucasus. 

As iterated by the Head of the NATO Liaison Office for the South Caucasus, Alexander Vinnikov, NATO cooperation delivers tangible benefits for both Armenia and NATO. NATO recognises Armenia as one of its most active partners, and Armenia has helped to strengthen Euro-Atlantic security through its contributions to NATO-led missions and operations. Vinnikov also stated that Armenia is using its partnership with NATO effectively, as demonstrated in its defence planning, modernisation, and security sector governance. According to Vinnikov, Armenia has expressed interest in becoming a recipient of the Defence and Related Security Capacity Building (DCB) Initiative. Areas in which NATO experience could further contribute include border security and protection of critical infrastructure. 

According to Ambassador Vassilis Maragos, Head of the EU Delegation to Armenia, the EU and Armenia have deepened and accelerated their partnership over the past two years, and relations between Armenia and the EU have never been stronger. Ambassador Maragos cited first ever security consultations launched between the EU and Armenia, EU support for Armenian businesses via preferential loans, funding more than 40 projects and helping to create thousands of private sector jobs. He also cited EU support for reforms in justice, anticorruption and policing, in addition to non-lethal military assistance, the launch of a visa normalisation dialogue, and investments in Armenian critical infrastructure. 

Sossi Tatikyan, a Partner Expert with the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, lauded the successes of the EU Mission in Armenia, which in addition to its core border monitoring mission provides non-lethal assistance, conducts outreach activities, builds trust among border communities, and combats disinformation. 

Support for closer integration with the EU is not only driven at the government level. As NATO parliamentarians heard from representatives of Armenian civil society, broad swathes of Armenian civil society also express a desire for closer EU integration due to the economic and political benefits it presents. 

Throughout the seminar, Members of Parliament engaged with the following speakers: 

Armenian officials
Anushik AVETYAN    Deputy Minister of Economy of Armenia
Armen GRIGORYAN    Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia
Suren PAPIKYAN    Minister of Defence of Armenia

Members of Parliament
Andranik KOCHARYAN    Head of the Armenian Delegation to NATO PA
Ruben RUBINYAN    Vice-President of the Parliament of Armenia

Foreign and International Officials
Andrea BAUMANN    Ambassador of Switzerland to Armenia
Kristina KVIEN    US Ambassador to Armenia
Vassilis MARAGOS    Head of the Delegation of the European Union to the Republic of Armenia
Burcu SAN    Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Operations, NATO
Alexander VINNIKOV    Head, NATO Liaison Office in Georgia

Experts and Civil Society
Tinatin AKHVLEDIANI     Research Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies 
Antje FRITZ    Deputy Head - Operations Europe and Central Asia at DCAF
Richard GIRAGOSIAN    Founding Director, Regional Studies Center
Nigar GÖKSEL    Türkiye/Cyprus Director, International Crisis Group
Lousineh HAKOBYAN    President, Europe in Law
Edgar KHACHATRYAN    Founder and President, Peace Dialogue Armenia
Joshua KUCERA    Senior Analyst, South Caucasus, International Crisis Group
Armine MARGARYAN    Head, Women and Global Security Architecture
Johnny MELIKYAN    Foreign Affairs Specialist, Senior Research Fellow, Orbeli Center
Murad MURADOV    Co-founder and Deputy Director, Topchubashov Center
Adam REICHARDT    Editor-in-Chief, New Eastern Europe magazine
Styopa SAFARYAN    Founder and Director, Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs
Artur SAKUNTS    President, Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly – Vanadzor (HCAV)
Dennis SAMMUT    Director of LINKS Europe Foundation, and Managing Editor of commonspace.eu
Sossi TATIKYAN    Partner Expert, The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs
Konrad ZASZTOWT    Assistant Professor, University of Warsaw

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The NATO Parliamentary Assembly is institutionally separate from NATO but serves as an essential link between NATO and the parliaments of the NATO nations. It provides greater transparency of NATO policies and fosters better understanding of the Alliance’s objectives and missions among legislators and citizens of the Alliance.  
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